Is Mexico at Risk of Being Downgraded to Category 2 Again?

Season 1, Episode 3 | June 4, 2025

Executive Summary:

Background:

In May 2021, Mexico was downgraded to FAA Category 2 due to regulatory deficiencies at AFAC (Mexico’s civil aviation authority). The downgrade lasted 29 months, limiting Mexican carriers’ ability to expand U.S. operations and suspending codeshare agreements.

Status in 2025:

Though Mexico regained Category 1 in 2023, structural weaknesses persist:

• Personnel Shortage: 2,000–4,000 vacant technical positions at AFAC.

• Budget Cuts: Severe funding constraints limit oversight capacity.

• Low Audit Execution: Only 24 of 100+ required safety inspections completed in 2023.

• Operational Failures: Navigation outages (GNSS) and airspace management issues have triggered global pilot alerts.

Potential Consequences of a New Downgrade:

• Freeze on route expansion to the U.S.

• Suspension or limitation of commercial alliances and codeshares.

• No FAA certification for new aircraft.

• Limited ability to offset losses with domestic market growth, now slowing. • Damage to Mexico’s global regulatory reputation.

Institutional Concerns:

• AFAC autonomy and technical capacity remain fragile.

• FAA oversight is technical, but strained bilateral relations could accelerate action.

• Infrastructure upgrades (AICM) help but are insufficient without regulatory reform.

Recommended Actions:

1. Ensure adequate and stable funding for AFAC.

2. Hire and train technical personnel.

3. Complete and document safety audits.

4. Maintain open, technical cooperation with FAA.

5. Avoid political interference or public discrediting of FAA processes

Nicolás: Welcome to a new episode of Altitude. Today, we’ll address a question that’s making waves in the aviation sector: Is Mexico at risk of being downgraded again by the FAA to Category 2? What does that mean? What’s been done since the last downgrade? And how close—or farare we from such a scenario? This is a timely topic, especially because on May 25 we marked four years since Mexico was downgraded to Category 2 in 2021.

To help us unpack this, I’m joined by two experts in Latin American aviation: Arturo and Fabricio. Thank you both for being here.

Nicolás: Arturo, let’s start with the basics: Why does the FAA have authority to downgrade countries like Mexico?

Arturo: Good question. As the U.S. aviation authority, the FAA must ensure that all operations into and out of the U.S. meet international safety standards as set by ICAO. This isn’t about imposing sovereignty—it’s about protecting passengers and upholding a global safety baseline. If a country fails to meet those standards, it loses operational flexibility in the U.S.

Fabricio: I’d add that it’s not an arbitrary punishment. The FAA conducts periodic technical audits under the IASA program, evaluating whether a country’s aviation authority is fulfilling critical functions: licensing, certifications, oversight, and inspections. If there are deficiencies, a downgrade follows.

Arturo: Every ICAO member state has the same rights and obligations. This is about ensuring that aircraft entering a country’s airspace meet minimum safety standards—like preventing tragedies on the ground, as in the recent crash of a Mexican air ambulance in Philadelphia, which killed all six onboard plus one person on the ground and injured 19 others.

Nicolás: Mexico lived through this in 2021. What exactly happened?

Arturo: The AFAC failed to meet key requirements—deficiencies in pilot certifications, lack of technical personnel, insufficient resources, and process documentation issues. That’s why the FAA downgraded Mexico to Category 2 in May 2021.

Fabricio: It’s crucial to understand that maintaining Category 1 status is solely the responsibility of the national aviation authority—in this case, the AFAC. The FAA doesn’t evaluate the airlines directly; it assesses the effectiveness of their regulator.

Arturo: But airlines are the ones that suffer. Under Category 2, they can’t increase flights or launch new routes to the U.S. or modify their operating certificates.

Fabricio: And they couldn’t add new aircraft to their FAA certifications—even though newer planes are safer and more efficient. Also, codeshare agreements were suspended, significantly impacting commercial alliances like AM-DL, VW-UA, and Y4-F9.

Mexico remained in Category 2 for 29 months, raising global doubts about its regulatory capacity.

Nicolás: What was done to recover Category 1 in 2023?

Fabricio: AFAC worked with the FAA—training personnel, updating procedures, addressing findings, and getting legislative support for budget and autonomy. They also aligned with international best practices.

Arturo: Still, the process was slow due to underfunding and staff shortages.

Nicolás: So, are we at risk of another downgrade?

Fabricio: Unfortunately, yes. The root problems haven’t been fixed. AFAC is still short 2,000–4,000 personnel and faces severe budget cuts.

Arturo: In 2023, only 24 of 100+ planned safety audits were completed. Combine that with incidents like GNSS signal loss at AICM and operational issues in the Valley of Mexico airspace, and there’s a real risk. IFALPA has even issued a formal warning about these risks.

Nicolás: Fabricio, what would happen if we were downgraded again?

Fabricio: Same restrictions would apply—but the impact would be worse now. In 2021, domestic air travel in Mexico boomed and absorbed the shock. In 2025-2026, that growth is slowing, and a downgrade would intensify oversupply issues in a weaker economy.

It would also project broader institutional weakness—harming Mexico’s international image.

Nicolás: Will current investments in the AICM help prevent a downgrade?

Fabricio: To some extent. Runway repairs, taxiways, safety systems, and slot management are improvements—but…

Arturo: …without strengthening AFAC’s oversight capabilities, infrastructure alone isn’t enough.

Nicolás: What does AFAC need to do now?

Arturo: 1. Secure proper funding. 2. Hire and train inspectors and auditors. 3. Ensure every safety check is performed and documented.

Fabricio: And 4. Maintain transparent and technical engagement with the FAA. Credibility is built daily.

Nicolás: Are FAA decisions influenced by politics?

Fabricio: Officially no—the IASA process is technical. But lack of transparency or cooperation can raise red flags. Political tensions could reduce the chance for diplomatic correction before a downgrade.

Arturo: Exactly. If Mexico publicly discredits the FAA or weakens AFAC’s structure, the process can accelerate.

Let me emphasize: the FAA’s category rating doesn’t reflect airline safety—it measures the government’s regulatory capability. Mexican airlines continue to meet IATA, ICAO, and FAA operational standards.

Nicolás: As we begin our descent for landing, we’ll wrap up this important discussion. Keeping Category 1 isn’t automatic—it’s earned every day. Arturo, Fabricio—thank you. And to our listeners, follow us on your favorite platform. This was Altitude—thanks for flying with us